The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise says President Bola Tinubu’s first three years in office brought bold reforms that stabilized Nigeria’s fragile economy — but those gains have not yet reached ordinary citizens. In a policy brief released Sunday, the group assessed the administration’s performance from May 2023 to May 2026. It found that while macroeconomic indicators have improved, living standards remain under pressure.
Reforms that steadied the ship
The assessment notes that Tinubu inherited “deep macroeconomic, fiscal, and foreign exchange vulnerabilities.” Two measures stand out: the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of the exchange rate. The group called the exchange rate unification “one of the most distortionary features of the Nigerian economy” — it helped restore credibility to the forex framework and improved price discovery.
Still, the center warned that macroeconomic stability alone won’t matter unless Nigerians see actual improvements in incomes, jobs, and living conditions. The next phase of policy, it argued, must focus on poverty reduction and productivity.
Related: CBN delays PoS geo-fencing enforcement to August
Where the numbers stand
The brief points to several encouraging figures. Gross external reserves climbed toward $50 billion in February 2026, with net foreign exchange reserves reaching $34.80 billion at the end of 2025, up from $23.11 billion a year earlier. The NGX All Share Index rose from about 55,700 points in 2023 to over 254,000 points in 2026. Market capitalization jumped from around N30 trillion to more than N160 trillion.
The group also cited eleven consecutive months of disinflation from early 2025 to February 2026. But it cautioned that inflation remains raised and purchasing power weak.
What’s still holding things back
According to the policy brief, several factors limit the impact of reforms. Insecurity continues to affect agriculture. High energy costs and logistics constraints squeeze businesses. Weak productivity blunts growth. And the country faces fiscal risks from a public debt stock of N159.3 trillion as of December 2025.
Related: Top Reasons Why Microsoft Teams is Right for Your Business
CPPE said the success of the reform agenda “will not be judged only by reserve growth, exchange rate stability, or stock market performance.” Instead, the ultimate measure is jobs, incomes, and the quality of life of ordinary Nigerians.
The group’s tone is measured — acknowledging progress while stressing that the real test is still ahead.
Tinubu’s own scorecard
The president has defended his approach. In his third anniversary message, Tinubu said the administration laid the foundation for recovery after inheriting fuel subsidy pressures, exchange-rate distortions, rising debt-service costs, insecurity, and weak public trust. He noted that investor confidence is improving and pointed to the stock market gains. He also listed major infrastructure projects, including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway, and the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Road, among others. More than 2,700 kilometers of highways and major roads are under construction, reconstruction, or rehabilitation nationwide, he said.
Related: What is a Hosted VoIP – What You Need to Know
Tinubu defeated former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi in a three-horse race in May 2023, taking office at a moment of severe fiscal stress. His early moves — subsidy removal and exchange rate liberalization — triggered higher energy prices and a sharp rise in the cost of living. He has maintained those painful steps were necessary to prevent deeper deterioration.
That conversion has not happened yet.